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Residents of the Big Apple will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and protects the nation's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought international attention. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

This represents a rather grubby end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to Americans' frustration at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the party arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback victory, it could cement the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has infuriated grassroots members. A NYC defeat of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir last week, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd