A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They authors two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
