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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your squad in our preseason forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

But this year's field is distinctly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been messy, with recent division champions fading and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an offense built solely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to spin magic from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But this isn't a normal season!

Where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, he trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an early hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still